Each year, MoCoSnow summarizes and compares some of the most popular winter outlooks before the season begins, including forecasts from all major local networks, The Washington Post, and online meteorologists who’ve built devoted followings across the region. Earlier this week, we looked at FOX 5 DC’s winter forecast, and now we’re turning to one of the most recognizable independent forecasters in Maryland, Justin Berk.
Berk, a former broadcast meteorologist for ABC2 News in Baltimore, has become one of the state’s most followed weather voices through his Just In Weather brand, where he combines local data, pattern tracking, and what he calls “gut-level forecasting” to deliver community-centered outlooks.
This week, Berk released his 2025–2026 Winter Outlook, and he’s predicting a noticeably snowier season than most others so far. “I am in rare company as I have seen other outlooks staying low,” Berk wrote, “and that is easy with our two-year drought, decade snow drought, and a typical La Niña. But I see more under the hood of this car.”
Berk’s map shows wide ranges to account for mountains, valleys, and coastal differences:
- McHenry: 100″–140″ (near average to 40% above average)
- Allegheny Ridge: 50″–80″+ (50%–100% above average)
- Front Ridge: 35″–50″+ (10%–50% above average)
- Suburbs (Westminster, York, Bel Air): 30″–40″+ (near average to 30% above average)
- Baltimore/Washington Metro (including MoCo): 20″–30″+ (near average up to 50% above average)
- Annapolis to Salisbury and the Beaches: 10″–20″ (near average)
He compared forecasting to sports rankings: “I see this falling in line with MLB or NFL team power rankings before their seasons. We can’t know who will have a career year or who will get injured. I am not responsible for your gambling.”
Berk notes that a weak La Niña pattern is in place and is expected to return to neutral conditions by mid-winter, a combination that can still fuel active Pacific storm development and stronger jet stream shifts. He points out, however, that “it can get pushed around by stronger forces closer to home,” suggesting that local atmospheric patterns may take over during the heart of the season.
He also reminds readers that the last time Maryland saw multiple blizzards in one season was 2010, when three major snowstorms brought 77 inches of snow. Since then, only three winters, between December 2014 and January 2016, have finished with above-average snowfall. The last one, in 2016, included the 29.2″ “Snowzilla” storm in late January. “We are OVERDUE for snow!” Berk emphasized in his post.
While Berk’s outlook is one of the more optimistic ones so far, it continues a recent theme: most forecasters are hinting that this winter will be more active than the past two. MoCoSnow will continue to track forecasts from other local sources, and see if this year finally delivers the snow Maryland’s been waiting for.
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